This winter storm's intensity raises eyebrows in the context of climate change, revealing a perplexing paradox: how can we experience such extreme cold during a time of rising global temperatures? Despite the warming trend, phenomena like this storm still occur, and intriguingly, they may even be becoming more frequent under certain conditions.
As chilling as it might seem, the occurrence of severe cold spells is declining overall globally, yet millions are bracing for an extended period of icy weather. In the United States, winter is warming faster than any other season, and so far this year, records for warmer temperatures have been outpacing those for colder ones in the contiguous states. Notably, many Western states are experiencing their warmest winters on record, leading to significant snowfall shortages in popular ski destinations like Colorado.
According to Bernadette Woods Placky, the chief meteorologist at Climate Central, relatively few places have set records for low temperatures compared to the numerous warm records being established in the West. Nonetheless, she emphasizes that the current cold weather is quite unusual, akin to the harsher winters that regions such as the Midwest and Northeast used to experience decades ago.
Research from Climate Central has illustrated a clear trend: the coldest temperatures recorded annually across various U.S. cities are indeed on the rise due to climate change. For instance, Minneapolis has seen its lowest yearly temperature climb by approximately 12 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970, while Cleveland's coldest annual temperature has increased by 11.2 degrees over the same period. Essentially, winters are not as frigid as they used to be, making instances of severe cold rarer; however, it remains uncertain whether this winter will yield any all-time low temperature records.
Experts also suggest that the ongoing winter storm, particularly the Arctic chill that follows, may be influenced by climate change. Jennifer Francis, a researcher at the Woodwell Climate Research Center who specializes in the polar vortex's changes, has observed compelling evidence linking the two. She explains, "While global warming generally leads to milder winters, it doesn't eliminate the possibility of extreme winter weather events—these may actually be occurring more frequently. This is because warming brings about additional factors that contribute to such severe weather, and many of these are relevant this week."
The influx of cold air from the Arctic is facilitated by the polar vortex, which typically keeps frigid air confined to Arctic regions but can extend southward when it becomes destabilized. This is precisely what is happening across the United States right now, as a significant trough in the jet stream is allowing cold air to seep down into the central and eastern portions of the country.
Judah Cohen, an MIT research scientist, points out that the stretching of the polar vortex is, in part, a consequence of sea ice loss in the Arctic due to human-induced climate change. He further notes that above-average snowfall in Siberia increases the chances of such stretching events, which is also linked to reduced sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. Cohen stated, "There’s a clear connection between these stretched polar vortex events and extreme winter weather patterns here in the U.S. During this period of rapid climate change in the Arctic, we’ve observed more variability in the polar vortex, which heightens the risk of severe winter weather in mid-latitude regions, including the U.S., Europe, and parts of Asia."
He added, "In areas beneath the stretched polar vortex, like the U.S. and Asia, there has been a notable uptick in severe winter weather occurrences. I’m not claiming that any single weather event can be solely blamed on climate change, but I do believe that the odds have shifted in favor of such outcomes."
What do you think about the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events? Do you agree with the scientists' assessments, or do you see things differently? Feel free to share your thoughts!
